The second phase of voting for the Lok Sabha in India has started today (Friday). Rabbul Islam, after casting his vote in the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency in Assam, will return to Chennai by train today. There, he works at a car repair shop. 30-year-old Rabbul is a resident of Sutar Gaon, located on the banks of the Brahmaputra in Assam. Most residents of this village are Bengali-origin Muslims. Year after year, floods and riverbank erosion have impacted their lives and livelihoods, forcing the youth here to leave the village.

Alongside celebrating Eid, many migrant workers including Rabbul return to their village in Sutar Gaon to vote in the Lok Sabha elections. Rabbul was playing carrom with other workers at Sutar Gaon market on April 23. Rabbul said, in the last two years, more than five hundred families have lost their homes to river erosion. The government has done nothing to protect us. After losing homes and crops, we move to cities to survive.

On April 22, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) held a public meeting in this market. Discussions about the public meeting were ongoing alongside the carrom game. At that time, several BJP flags were still hoisted in the market. Hoisting of BJP flags seemed new to most residents of this area.

At the same time, a 27-year-old youth named Minarul Islam said, they have never come to ask for our votes in the past.

Minarul has good reason to be surprised. Assam's Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma often emphasized that BJP does not need the votes of 'Miyas,' a derogatory term used for Bengali Muslims, who are often insulted as illegal immigrants.

Muslims make up about 35% of Assam's population. BJP came to power in 2016 with an anti-Bengali-Muslim sentiment. They referred to the then assembly election as the 'final battle of Saraighat.' In the 2021 elections, the party called it a 'civilizational war' between 65% and 35%. There are no Muslim legislators from BJP in the 126-member Assam assembly.

And Sarma's government has followed a hardcore Hindutva agenda. Repeatedly, it has targeted Bengali Muslims. His government has carried out evictions, demolition of madrassas, and campaigns against child marriage, incarcerating thousands of Muslim men. The state has also pledged to end polygamy. He has even accused Bengali Muslim vegetable farmers of 'fertilizer jihad.'

But before this Lok Sabha election, BJP is desperate to secure Muslim votes in at least three constituencies: central Assam's Nagaon, northern bank of Brahmaputra's Darrang-Udalguri, and southern Assam's Barak Valley's Karimganj. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won all these seats except Nagaon.

On April 18, Himanta Biswa Sarma gave a rare speech in Bengali at a public meeting in Neelambazar of the Karimganj constituency. He asked, 'Have you [Muslims] not received benefits from the Arunoday scheme?' He was referring to a state government program that provided women with 1250 rupees per month. He questioned, 'Do you not receive 5 kg of rice for free every month? Do Muslims have the Ayushman Bharat card or not?'

Before today's vote, Sarma emphasized his campaign in the Muslim-majority area. Each public meeting attracted a large crowd.

Interestingly, the party is not just promoting its welfare programs to gain votes from the often-disparaged Muslims. They are also reaching out to the economically backward Bengali Muslim communities and promising them Scheduled Caste status and quotas in higher education institutions. Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi has criticized Congress for giving reservation benefits to Muslims as Scheduled Castes, Tribes, and other backward classes.

However, it is true that the party has not fielded any Muslim candidates in any of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In at least three of these seats, Muslims make up more than 50% of the voters. In some cases, there are allegations that BJP leaders have directly intimidated Muslims to get their votes.

'They have done good work'

Voting occurred today (April 26) in two of those three seats, Nagaon and Karimganj, where Bengali Muslims are the majority. In these electoral areas, BJP's appeal has created a stir among many, although it is hard to say whether this will translate into votes.

Zakaria Tapadar, a member of the Karimganj-based social service organization Barak Kantha, said, 'For the first time, it seems that a section of the Muslims is leaning towards BJP.'

Mansur Ahmed, a 40-year-old grocer from Sutar Gaon and whose ancestors were Congress supporters, agrees with Zakaria. He said, 'No one imagined that people here would consider voting for BJP. But people's perspectives changed after the BJP government started building dams.'

Mansur actually referred to a 930-meter-long dam built by the state's Water Resources Department to block the waters of the Brahmaputra. This dam has protected homes and fields in Muamari, Sutar Gaon, and other villages in the Moirabari-Dhing area from flooding.

Ataur Rahman from Biringabari village near Sutar Gaon said, 'BJP has done a good job. Congress never did anything to protect us from the river.'

BJP has extensively engaged with voters in Nagaon to demonstrate their sincerity. It is anticipated that BJP will face competition from Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in this constituency. The BJP candidate not only visited mosques but also participated in prayers and iftar parties during the campaign.

Mohammad Yasin, a 41-year-old madrasa teacher, mentioned, 'Almost all candidates in Nagaon have visited the Moirabari Jame Masjid, the largest mosque in Moirabari. I have been voting for AIUDF for the past 15 years. This time, I will vote for whichever party can form the government.'

Mansur Ahmed, a shopkeeper, noted that people's perspectives towards BJP have changed due to the dam construction. However, their doubts about the party are deep. For example, 24-year-old Abdur Rahim, who works in Chennai, said, 'BJP has harassed the Muslim community a lot. They have evicted people from riverine areas and demolished homes. But now they are asking for our votes. We will never vote for them.'

Rahim acknowledged that some Muslim groups in the area are switching sides. He said, 'Those with some social influence or who are dependent on the government—like contractors or brokers at the police stations and district offices—have joined BJP. But most Muslims will not be swayed by money or new government schemes.'

His uncle Bahar Uddin said, 'We will not vote for BJP. They attack our religion, call Muslim women 'factories for producing children,' and destroy mosques and madrasas.'

The backstory of BJP's U-turn

For decades, Muslims in Assam have either voted for Congress or the AIUDF led by Badruddin Ajmal.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress and AIUDF reached an understanding to counter BJP, resulting in Congress winning three Lok Sabha seats, all with significant Muslim voter populations, as AIUDF did not field candidates there. These include Kaliabor and Nagaon, where the current MPs are Congress leaders Gaurav Gogoi and Pradyut Bordoloi, respectively.

In the 2021 assembly elections, Congress and the AIUDF formed an alliance and won 45 seats, out of which 31 were won by Muslim legislators.

This year, the two parties are competing separately, which may split the Muslim vote, benefiting the BJP. The question then arises: why is the BJP still trying to attract Muslim voters? The answer lies in the challenges posed by constituency delimitation.

Last year, the number of assembly seats where Muslim candidates have a high chance of winning decreased due to boundary changes. In the Lok Sabha, the number of seats with Muslim candidates is expected to increase from two to three, such as in Karimganj and Nagaon, where nearly 60 percent of the voters are Bengali Muslims. BJP's ally AGP is contesting in Dhubri, another Muslim-majority seat.

After the redrawing of electoral boundaries, Rajen Gohain, a BJP MP from Nagaon since 1999, said that the new boundaries have made the Lok Sabha seat invincible for a BJP candidate in the future.

A Congress leader in Pradyut Bordoloi’s campaign stated, "BJP knows that they cannot win Nagaon with only Hindu votes, hence they have taken a significant U-turn to get minority votes." He also acknowledged that BJP's foray into minority areas is damaging their chances.

The AIUDF is also concerned about the division of its votes. In 2019, Bordoloi defeated the BJP candidate Rupak Sarmah by a margin of only 16,752 votes.

Caste-based Politics

To win the election, BJP is going door to door among the disadvantaged Muslims, promising Scheduled Caste status and reserved quotas. These disadvantaged Muslims include communities from three districts in the Barak Valley and the adjacent Sylhet district in Bangladesh, known as Maimal or Mahimals—who earn their living by fishing.

 

 

He claimed that in February, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma assured him that he would address their four demands: granting them tribal and Scheduled Caste status, reserving a 2% quota for Mahimal students in Assam's medical and engineering colleges, and conducting a census to determine their numbers.